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Sports Betting: Practical Advices #4

admin — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:04:14 +0000

Today I will talk about baseball betting tips. What guidelines you should follow in order to get good earnings in this sport.

The earlier posts about practical insight of sports betting:
Aspects Of Online Sports Betting: Advices For Beginners #1
Tips For Beginners: How To Be Successful In Sports Betting #2
Real Tips For Online Sports Betting #3

Tips For Online Baseball Bets

Do not stake too early! The trainer of a team may change the pitcher just in one hour before the game!

Witch the statistics of “the hitters against the pitchers”, this information might be very useful!

Check the pitchers’ playing against the particular teams, as every pitcher has his own “favorite” teams, against which they usually play very good, and “unloved” ones against which they usually play, vice versa, bad.

Check the weather forecast, as the strong breeze may affect the result of a match.

Before using the statistic data of “the hitters against the pitchers”, check where they have been appeared from! Sometimes they may mislead you. For instance, Kenny Rogers’ ERA rating is 7.5… But after checking the statistics of the games, he appeared to have played 10 matches and in one of them he received 9 runs and 2 innings. It very distorts the statistics and makes a wrong impression of the player’s talents.

Use the statistics of home/away matches very often, as some players feel comfortable in one environment but not in the other. Let’s consider, for example, Jeff Cirillo. His statistics of hitting is .100 in the home matches, and .320 in the away matches. It is useful to know such things.

Bet on the totals! Definitely, there is a number of reasons for the bookmakers to set low limits on such kinds of stakes. Here you can overplay the bookmakers easily, as the totals are simple to be examined. Betting on the totals, first of all examine the information and then gain your prize!

Baseball Betting Tips: Prompts #12

admin — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 17:41:53 +0000

The final post about baseball betting example. I think all of you are looking forward to see it. Check out

I have created rather huge sequel about baseball betting :

Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5
Baseball Betting: Strategical Insight #6
Baseball Betting: Tactical Insight #7
Baseball Betting: System Approach #8
How To Bet On Baseball Strategically? #9
System Tips In Baseball Betting #10
Useful Tips For Baseball Betting #11

Again, when you bet on moneylines, always use more than one bookmaker, whether you bet with the local or the internet bookmakers, so you can bet, having the best chances for every particular match.

There are three initial criteria of this system, which are: excluding the games with the pitchers in the top 20, excluding the favorites, which have lost three games in succession, or the underdogs, which have lost three times in succession; and the underdogs, which have more than +150 odds on moneylines.

In addition you may add some criteria to sort out some “useless” matches. A research may show that a pitcher of the lost underdog team have never won the opponent team. You can’t make too much homework. If the pitcher of your underdog team is in a losing series, and this team plays against a strong offensive team with a pitcher who is listed as №24 (rating), your instinct to pass on this match is absolutely correct.

You can modify the system, using the pitchers who are in the Top 30 of their league. Also if you want to play fewer games, you can bet the underdogs on moneyline with +140 instead of +150.

If there play two pitchers and both are in the Top 20 of their league, you’d better stake on under the total. Work again at home, and define how each team has played against the opponent’s pitcher, and how their recent games have been played.

Summing up

The history of baseball shows that in 4 games from 9, underdogs win their favorites. But it doesn’t give you enough advantage over the bookmakers, but using three key criteria of the Baseball Underdog System, you will receive such an advantage. You should sequentially choose the winners.

Look at the previous example, multiplying your 147$ profit by 24 weeks of a baseball season, you can gain about 3 500$, betting only 20$ on each match during the season.

Useful Tips For Baseball Betting #11

admin — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 17:37:10 +0000

Here I am continuing to provide helpful tips with real practical examples as for your baseball betting strategy. Day 7

The beginning of the practice:
Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5
Baseball Betting: Strategical Insight #6
Baseball Betting: Tactical Insight #7
Baseball Betting: System Approach #8
How To Bet On Baseball Strategically? #9
System Tips In Baseball Betting #10

DAY 7, Sunday, May 18, 2003

Chicago Cubs (+120, Estes) at St. Louis (-130, Simontacchi)
Result: St. Louis 6, Chicago 3, for a $20 loss.
Montreal (+120, Ohka) at Colorado (-130, Chacon).
Again, Colorado’s pitcher was ranked No. 25, so this is an iffy play, but I’ll include it.
Result: Colorado 4, Montreal 0, for a $20 loss.
New York Mets (+130, Glavine) at San Francisco (-140, Ainsworth)
Result: New York 5, San Francisco 1 for a $26 profit.
Pittsburgh (Suppan) at Arizona (Webb)
Result: Arizona 8, Pittsburgh 6, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.
Anaheim (+125, Lackey) at Boston (-135, Burkett)
Result: Boston 5, Angels 3, for a $20 loss.
Tampa Bay (+130, Kennedy) at Baltimore (-140, Daal)
Result: Tampa Bay 9, Baltimore 8, for a $26 profit.
Chicago White Sox (Loaiza) at Minnesota (Lohse)
Result: Minnesota 3, Chicago 2, for a $20 profit on a total of 8.

Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit

7
2-3
-$8
1-1
-$2
-$10
$181
I want you to pay attention to the said above, I would be beyond the choosing Montreal with high rated Chacon on the top, which would give us a day full of wins, and only 2 losing days from 7 in this system. This example shows that you need to look for games with pitchers, which are on the edge of the Top 25, and make sure that there are other reasons to bet on underdogs besides the good coefficients.
So, what have you done for this week?
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Total Profit

1-7
18-15
$147
5-3
$34
$191
Three key criteria, to choose the games in the Baseball Underdog System, have helped you to choose 18 winners from 33 games (or .545 percent of winning).
Plus there are some criteria to bet unders with 2 pitchers in Top 20 ERA or NPERA, it has given .625 percent of winning.

System Tips In Baseball Betting #10

admin — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 19:03:15 +0000

Here I am continuing the topic about baseball betiing strategy. First posts are here:

DAY 6, Saturday, May 17, 2003

Cincinnati (-130, Austin) at Milwaukee (+120, Rusch)
Result: Milwaukee 8, Cincinnati 6, for a $24 profit.
Philadelphia (+115, Duckworth) at Houston (-125, Linebank)
Result: Philadelphia 9, Houston 4, for a $23 profit.
Pittsburgh (+125, Torres) at Arizona (-130, Capuano)
Pittsburgh 8, Arizona 5, for a $25 profit.
Tampa Bay (+140, Gonzalez) at Baltimore (-150, Hentgen)
Result: Baltimore 2, Tampa Bay 0, for a $20 loss.
Oakland (-160, Halama) at Cleveland (+150, Rodriguez)
Occasionally, such as in this game, the underdog pitcher is ranked fairly high, in this case No. 28 in the AL. These games are usually particular bargains.
Result: Cleveland 4, Oakland 2, for a $30 profit.
Toronto (-120, Halladay) at Kansas City (+110, Affeldt)
Result: Toronto 4, Kansas City 2, for a $20 loss.
Anaheim (+110, Washburn) at Boston (-120, Lowe)
This is yet another example of when an underdog pitcher is ranked, this time No. 14!
Result: Anaheim 6, Boston 2, for a $22 profit.
Chicago White Sox (+130, Garland) at Minnesota (-140, Mays)
Because the favored pitcher is ranked No. 23, I’d pass on this pick but will include it for our example’s purposes.
Result: Minnesota 3, Chicago 1, for a $20 loss.
Texas (+215, Valdes) at New York Yankees (-235, Pettitte)
As I told in my last chapter, “the bookmakers overrate Yankee.” During this period of the season 2003, for instance, Yankee played baseball unusually bad. And Pettitte was at the worst point of his career, so it wasn’t a bad underdog’ game. But I am not going to include it in your gain. I show it here only for you to understand, that you should look over the numbers as logic sometimes can reject the “rules”.
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit

6
5-3
$54
0-0
$0
$54
$191
This is not the day when you just choose underdogs, as I except the loss with Chicago, and include the win with Texas, which didn’t really fit our criteria. As the system is comfortable for you, you will obviously understand those things, when you move a little aside the rules.

How To Bet On Baseball Strategically? #9

admin — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 13:00:35 +0000

Below is the list of initial posts about this topic:

DAY 5, Friday, May 16, 2003

Atlanta (-160, Hampton) at San Diego (+140, Peavy)
Result: Atlanta 6, San Diego 4, for a $20 loss.
Pittsburgh (Wells) at Arizona (Batista)
Result: Pirates 8, Arizona 5, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.
Chicago Cubs (Clement) at St. Louis (Williams)

Result: St. Louis 7, Chicago 4, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.
Philadelphia (-115, Padilla) at Houston (+105, Robertson)
Result: Houston 4, Philadelphia 2, for a $21 profit.
Chicago White Sox (+110, Buehrle) at Minnesota (-120, Radke)
Result: Minnesota 18, Chicago 3, for a $20 loss.
Toronto (+105, Hendrickson) at Kansas City (-115, George)
Result: Toronto 18, Kansas City 1, for a $21 profit.
Oakland (Mulder) at Cleveland (Sabathia)
Result: Cleveland 2, Oakland 1, for a $20 profit on a total of 7.5.
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit

5
2-2
$2
1-2
-$24
-$22
$137
This is the worst day of the week. But this is also the only day during which the “unders” were lost. This is the very thing, why I always like betting on The Baseball Underdog System, as the great pinchers almost every time overcome the good hits, especially in the two third of a season, before the hands of the starting pitchers are got tired.

Baseball Betting: System Approach #8

admin — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 06:02:35 +0000

The beginning of the topic:

DAY 3, Wednesday, May 14, 2003

New York Mets (+100, Seo) at Colorado (-120, Oliver)
Result: Colorado 6, New York 5, for a $20 loss.
Montreal (+140, Vargas) at San Francisco (-150, Foppert)
Result: Montreal 6, San Francisco 3, for a $28 profit.
Arizona (Schilling) at Philadelphia (Myers)
Result: Arizona 2, Philadelphia 0, for a $20 profit on the under total of 7.5 since Myers was a Top 20 pitcher and Schilling was also highly ranked in a fewer-innings category after returning from an injury.
Kansas City (+130, Hernandez) at Minnesota (-145, Reed)
Result: Minnesota 7, Kansas City 0, for a $20 loss.
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit
3
1-2
-$12
1-0
$20
$8
$149

DAY 4, Thursday, May 15, 2003

Houston (-150, Oswalt) at Pittsburgh (+140, Benson)
Result: Houston 6, Pittsburgh 2, for a $20 loss.
Kansas City (+150, Asencio) at Minnesota (-160, Rogers)
Result: Kansas City 9, Minnesota 5, for a $30 profit.
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit

4
1-1
$10
0-0
$0
$10
$159

Baseball Betting: Tactical Insight #7

admin — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 12:44:18 +0000

First posts concerning baseball betting strategy:

Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5
Baseball Betting: Strategical Insight #6

DAY 2, Tuesday, May 13, 2003

Houston (-120, Redding) at Pittsburgh (+100, Suppan)
Result: Houston 6, Pittsburgh 3, for a $20 loss.
Chicago (-125, Estes) at Milwaukee (+115, Quevedo)
Result: Chicago 7, Milwaukee 2, for a $20 loss.
Cincinnati (+150, Wilson) at St. Louis (-160, Simontacchi)
Result: Cincinnati 7, St. Louis 2, for a $30 profit.

Montreal (+130, Ohka) at San Francisco (-140, Ainsworth)
Result: Montreal 6, San Francisco 4, for a $26 profit.

Atlanta (Ortiz) at Los Angeles (Ishii)

Result: Atlanta 3, Los Angeles 1, for a profit of $20 on the under total of 7.5, since both pitchers were in the Top 20.

Florida (+100, Penny) at San Diego (-110, Lawrence)
Result: San Diego 6, Florida 5, for a $20 loss.

Tampa Bay (+150, Kennedy) at Toronto (-160, Sturtze)
Result: Tampa Bay 7, Toronto 5, for a $30 profit.

Texas (+140, Thomson) at Boston (-150, Burkett)
Result: Boston 5, Texas 4, for a $20 loss.
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit

2
3-4
$6
1-0
$20
$26
$141
Take notice, though your result is 3-4 in the second day, you still have profit because of the good coefficient on the underdogs. And your “unders” also bring you profit.

Baseball Betting: Strategical Insight #6

admin — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:49:26 +0000

First posts concerning baseball betting strategy:

Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5

Under The Total in Games With Two Great Pitchers

During betting on The Baseball Underdog System, I always include the second set of stakes on the games, in which both of the pitchers are in the Top20 of the league, on unders the estimated by bookmaker total. As you might suppose, “the pitchers’ duels” usually finish unders the total, estimated by bookmaker; it is usually between 7.5 and 9 runs.
To show you how it works, the information below includes an example from real life, which shows a week from MLB season, using The Baseball Underdog System.

Evidence

Instead of giving you a hypothetical example that shows how to win using The Baseball Underdog System, I give you a real example of betting during a week on the MLB games from Monday, May 12, 2003 to Saturday, May 18, 2003.

Notice that this week was chosen by my employee, Nelson Williams, and I include this example at the end of the article not because it proves this system to be better or something. Any other week might be on this place. To make the calculation easier, the bets on underdogs of moneyline amount to 20$ and all the unders – 22$ (to win 20$).

You will see that during the first day, on Monday, I have included all the selected games with the explanations of their betting and removing. It will help you to understand what games really fit the system. After the first day I included the games, without explanations, and their results. Next to every team you can find its moneyline odds and initial pitchers.

DAY 1, Monday, May 12, 2003

Houston (-115, Lindenbrook) at Pittsburgh (+105, Torres)
The underdog Pittsburgh had lost 3 in a row coming into this game, so there is no play.

Result: Houston 9, Pittsburgh 4.

Chicago Cubs (-240, Prior) at Milwaukee (+200, Rusch)

Prior is in the Top 20 and the moneyline odds on Milwaukee are too high, so there is no play.

Result: Chicago 11, Milwaukee 5.

New York Mets (+105, Trachsel) at Colorado (-115, Young)

Since neither team is on a streak, neither pitcher is in the Top 20, and the moneyline odds are +150 or below, there is a $20 play on New York +105.

Result: New York 9, Colorado 6, for a $21 profit.

Florida (+115, Phelps) at San Diego (-125, Condrey)

Again, neither team is on a streak, neither pitcher is in the Top 20, and the moneyline odds aren’t too high, so the $20 play is Florida +115.

Result: Florida 6, San Diego 1, for a $23 profit.

Atlanta (+120, Reynolds) at Los Angeles (-130, Nomo)

Once again, none of the excluding criteria has been met, so the $20 play is on Atlanta +120.

Result: Atlanta 11, Los Angeles 4, for a $24 profit.

Montreal (+130, Day) at San Francisco (-140, Moss)

Both pitchers are in the Top 20, which means it is not a traditional play. But I’d play it as a $22 “under” wager on the day’s total of 7.5.

Result: Montreal 4, San Francisco 3, for a $20 profit

Kansas City (+135, Affeldt) at Minnesota (-145, May)

As neither pitcher is in the Top 20 or on a streak, and the odds are favorable, the play is on Kansas City + 135.

Result: Kansas City 3, Minnesota 2, for a $27 profit.

Day

Underdog Record

Profit

“Unders” Record

Profit

Today’s Profit

Total Profit

4-0

$95

1-0

$20

$115

This day proved the system the best way it could, as there were 4-0 for underdogs and 1-0 for unders. Not all the days look like this one and you will see it.

Take notice that in Pittsburgh and Milwaukee games we are beyond the potential losses, because we are keeping to our criteria. The pirates team were in the losing series, and Milwaukee had a very risky underdog.

System Approach in Baseball Betting #5

admin — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 08:01:16 +0000

Initial posts about this topic:
Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4

In this post I will continue to talk about baseball betting strategy. We will discuss aim, series, formula, rules, ‘under total with two great pitchers’, evidence. Hope these points will help to understand better successful betting in baseball.

Aim

The simple aim, the essence of which is to bet only on the baseball underdogs, who haven’t lost three games in a series and play versus a favorite team, which haven’t win 3 or more times in succession and has their standard start pitchers.

Series

Unlike the bulk of my programs, this series contains no system. Instead of this your bets will be based on the percentage of your Personal Bank of Bets, formula of which is below.

Formula

A simple formula to define the amount of your stake in The Baseball Underdog System.

.0125 x of your Bank = the amount of your stake.

It means that you bet 1.25% of your Bank on every game. So if your bank had constituted 1 600$, you would have betted 20$ on each game. Playing at the average about 5 games per day means you bet 100$ per day.

It will protect your Personal Bank of Bets. In fact, you would have had 0 wins and 80 losses, or you would have played about 16 days without wins to lose your Bank.

You are possible to think that the amount of these initial bets is very low. Well, you may increase them to 2.5% from your Bank. It means that you would have had 0 wins and 40 losses, or you would have played about 8 days without wins, to lose your Bank.

Rules

1. Every day check American and National league and automatically cross out from your list of bets any underdogs, which have more than +150 odds on moneyline or about it.

2. From the remained games cross out the games, in which the underdogs have lost three or more times in succession, or the favorites have won three or more times in succession. (You can find this information in MLB of the daily newspapers.)

3. From the rest of the games cross out all the games where pitchers are in the Top 20 from AL or NL to ERA, or NPERA, as it was defined by Jeff Sagarin (R) (see above).

4. You have to stake only on 3-9 games (from 15) per day. Bet 20$ (as in our discussed example) on each underdogs’ game, do it in every your favorable bookmaker office to find the best moneylines.

5. Before betting the next day, count the amount of your Personal Bank of Bets and increase your bets to amount each your stake to 1.25% of your Bank.

Strategy in Baseball Betting #4

admin — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 19:38:52 +0000

The first posts about baseball betting system:
Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3

When you visit the USA Today’s web site, you will notice that pitchers have been listed in American and National league separately; also you will notice that the pitchers were sorted according to the number of pitched innings. There quite much information about every listed pitcher, but first of all you should be interested in the first five columns, which shows the pitcher’ rank in general league, his name, his team, whether he is a right-handed player or a left-handed player, and his NPERA:

Rank
Name
Team
R/L
NPERA

#1
Mike Mussina
NYY
R
1.99

As the listed pitchers are sorted according to the number of pitched innings, be sure that you haven’t missed the injured pitchers, or the pitchers who has been shifted from relievers to starters, or those who haven’t pitched enough innings. As he might be placed on the top of the list, among the best pitchers of the league, until he is played enough innings and “rolled down”. You should pay attention to it especially at the beginning of a season.

After the elimination by means of these three criteria, from 15 daily games we need to leave only from 3 to 9 underdogs, to bet on them. Using our pattern, you bet 20$ on moneyline of each game.

Remember, that you are a bettor, and you should have an access to more than one bookmaker, the “real” bookmakers or/and “online” bookmakers, and it is very important.

The coefficient can be varied by some bookmakers, and you need to bet only having the best chances. For instance, if you bet on 5 games for a day, you can divide them into two web sites and three local “real” bookmakers, depending on whose offers are better.