Bet is an argue between two men about the result of an event

Each of them stakes some money (the stake), which he is ready to give his opponent if he wins. So the winner of betting, takes both his stake and his opponent’s stake. Those who has lost receives nothing. So the argue (in such cases it is called a bet) to be done, there need two sides (people), which have the opposite to each other opinion about the further match (or event).

A bookmaker, in some ways, is an intermediary between the people who bet. But his function is wider: he doesn’t only take the stakes from the bettors, but he also fix the amount of prize for each bet (coefficients), so he participates in betting himself, because the bookmaker’s profit depends on the correctness of setting the coefficients. Totalizators only accept the bets from players and pay them their prizes, dividing the whole amount of the betted money (except some money which they take for the work) into the amount of winning bets, proportionally to each bet.

So the totalizators’ profit depends only on the amount of bet and nothing more. There is another situation with the bookmakers, who have to pay the prize, which is amounted to the bet multiplied by its coefficient. So the bookmakers try adjusting the coefficients to receive the profit in any cases, and that is why almost every time as far as people bet, bookmakers change the coefficients, depending on the distribution of amount of money.

So the coefficients do not show the probability of results of the corresponded matches, but only the proportions of the bettors’ bets (really or according to the bookmaker’s calculation) on the results.
It was the description of the process in short. And before participating in it as a bettor, you should be prepared. Even if you have already betted, but you do not have any good progress, you would better to stop and start from the beginning, according to the recommendations given in the next post.

I have created rather huge sequel about baseball betting :

Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5
Baseball Betting: Strategical Insight #6
Baseball Betting: Tactical Insight #7
Baseball Betting: System Approach #8
How To Bet On Baseball Strategically? #9
System Tips In Baseball Betting #10
Useful Tips For Baseball Betting #11

Again, when you bet on moneylines, always use more than one bookmaker, whether you bet with the local or the internet bookmakers, so you can bet, having the best chances for every particular match.

There are three initial criteria of this system, which are: excluding the games with the pitchers in the top 20, excluding the favorites, which have lost three games in succession, or the underdogs, which have lost three times in succession; and the underdogs, which have more than +150 odds on moneylines.

In addition you may add some criteria to sort out some “useless” matches. A research may show that a pitcher of the lost underdog team have never won the opponent team. You can’t make too much homework. If the pitcher of your underdog team is in a losing series, and this team plays against a strong offensive team with a pitcher who is listed as №24 (rating), your instinct to pass on this match is absolutely correct.

You can modify the system, using the pitchers who are in the Top 30 of their league. Also if you want to play fewer games, you can bet the underdogs on moneyline with +140 instead of +150.

If there play two pitchers and both are in the Top 20 of their league, you’d better stake on under the total. Work again at home, and define how each team has played against the opponent’s pitcher, and how their recent games have been played.

Summing up

The history of baseball shows that in 4 games from 9, underdogs win their favorites. But it doesn’t give you enough advantage over the bookmakers, but using three key criteria of the Baseball Underdog System, you will receive such an advantage. You should sequentially choose the winners.

Look at the previous example, multiplying your 147$ profit by 24 weeks of a baseball season, you can gain about 3 500$, betting only 20$ on each match during the season.

Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5
Baseball Betting: Strategical Insight #6
Baseball Betting: Tactical Insight #7

DAY 3, Wednesday, May 14, 2003

New York Mets (+100, Seo) at Colorado (-120, Oliver)
Result: Colorado 6, New York 5, for a $20 loss.
Montreal (+140, Vargas) at San Francisco (-150, Foppert)
Result: Montreal 6, San Francisco 3, for a $28 profit.
Arizona (Schilling) at Philadelphia (Myers)
Result: Arizona 2, Philadelphia 0, for a $20 profit on the under total of 7.5 since Myers was a Top 20 pitcher and Schilling was also highly ranked in a fewer-innings category after returning from an injury.
Kansas City (+130, Hernandez) at Minnesota (-145, Reed)
Result: Minnesota 7, Kansas City 0, for a $20 loss.
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit
3
1-2
-$12
1-0
$20
$8
$149

DAY 4, Thursday, May 15, 2003

Houston (-150, Oswalt) at Pittsburgh (+140, Benson)
Result: Houston 6, Pittsburgh 2, for a $20 loss.
Kansas City (+150, Asencio) at Minnesota (-160, Rogers)
Result: Kansas City 9, Minnesota 5, for a $30 profit.
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit

4
1-1
$10
0-0
$0
$10
$159

Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5
Baseball Betting: Strategical Insight #6

DAY 2, Tuesday, May 13, 2003

Houston (-120, Redding) at Pittsburgh (+100, Suppan)
Result: Houston 6, Pittsburgh 3, for a $20 loss.
Chicago (-125, Estes) at Milwaukee (+115, Quevedo)
Result: Chicago 7, Milwaukee 2, for a $20 loss.
Cincinnati (+150, Wilson) at St. Louis (-160, Simontacchi)
Result: Cincinnati 7, St. Louis 2, for a $30 profit.

Montreal (+130, Ohka) at San Francisco (-140, Ainsworth)
Result: Montreal 6, San Francisco 4, for a $26 profit.

Atlanta (Ortiz) at Los Angeles (Ishii)

Result: Atlanta 3, Los Angeles 1, for a profit of $20 on the under total of 7.5, since both pitchers were in the Top 20.

Florida (+100, Penny) at San Diego (-110, Lawrence)
Result: San Diego 6, Florida 5, for a $20 loss.

Tampa Bay (+150, Kennedy) at Toronto (-160, Sturtze)
Result: Tampa Bay 7, Toronto 5, for a $30 profit.

Texas (+140, Thomson) at Boston (-150, Burkett)
Result: Boston 5, Texas 4, for a $20 loss.
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit

2
3-4
$6
1-0
$20
$26
$141
Take notice, though your result is 3-4 in the second day, you still have profit because of the good coefficient on the underdogs. And your “unders” also bring you profit.

Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5

Under The Total in Games With Two Great Pitchers

During betting on The Baseball Underdog System, I always include the second set of stakes on the games, in which both of the pitchers are in the Top20 of the league, on unders the estimated by bookmaker total. As you might suppose, “the pitchers’ duels” usually finish unders the total, estimated by bookmaker; it is usually between 7.5 and 9 runs.
To show you how it works, the information below includes an example from real life, which shows a week from MLB season, using The Baseball Underdog System.

Evidence

Instead of giving you a hypothetical example that shows how to win using The Baseball Underdog System, I give you a real example of betting during a week on the MLB games from Monday, May 12, 2003 to Saturday, May 18, 2003.

Notice that this week was chosen by my employee, Nelson Williams, and I include this example at the end of the article not because it proves this system to be better or something. Any other week might be on this place. To make the calculation easier, the bets on underdogs of moneyline amount to 20$ and all the unders – 22$ (to win 20$).

You will see that during the first day, on Monday, I have included all the selected games with the explanations of their betting and removing. It will help you to understand what games really fit the system. After the first day I included the games, without explanations, and their results. Next to every team you can find its moneyline odds and initial pitchers.

DAY 1, Monday, May 12, 2003

Houston (-115, Lindenbrook) at Pittsburgh (+105, Torres)
The underdog Pittsburgh had lost 3 in a row coming into this game, so there is no play.

Result: Houston 9, Pittsburgh 4.

Chicago Cubs (-240, Prior) at Milwaukee (+200, Rusch)

Prior is in the Top 20 and the moneyline odds on Milwaukee are too high, so there is no play.

Result: Chicago 11, Milwaukee 5.

New York Mets (+105, Trachsel) at Colorado (-115, Young)

Since neither team is on a streak, neither pitcher is in the Top 20, and the moneyline odds are +150 or below, there is a $20 play on New York +105.

Result: New York 9, Colorado 6, for a $21 profit.

Florida (+115, Phelps) at San Diego (-125, Condrey)

Again, neither team is on a streak, neither pitcher is in the Top 20, and the moneyline odds aren’t too high, so the $20 play is Florida +115.

Result: Florida 6, San Diego 1, for a $23 profit.

Atlanta (+120, Reynolds) at Los Angeles (-130, Nomo)

Once again, none of the excluding criteria has been met, so the $20 play is on Atlanta +120.

Result: Atlanta 11, Los Angeles 4, for a $24 profit.

Montreal (+130, Day) at San Francisco (-140, Moss)

Both pitchers are in the Top 20, which means it is not a traditional play. But I’d play it as a $22 “under” wager on the day’s total of 7.5.

Result: Montreal 4, San Francisco 3, for a $20 profit

Kansas City (+135, Affeldt) at Minnesota (-145, May)

As neither pitcher is in the Top 20 or on a streak, and the odds are favorable, the play is on Kansas City + 135.

Result: Kansas City 3, Minnesota 2, for a $27 profit.

Day

Underdog Record

Profit

“Unders” Record

Profit

Today’s Profit

Total Profit

1

4-0

$95

1-0

$20

$115

$115

This day proved the system the best way it could, as there were 4-0 for underdogs and 1-0 for unders. Not all the days look like this one and you will see it.

Take notice that in Pittsburgh and Milwaukee games we are beyond the potential losses, because we are keeping to our criteria. The pirates team were in the losing series, and Milwaukee had a very risky underdog.

When you visit the USA Today’s web site, you will notice that pitchers have been listed in American and National league separately; also you will notice that the pitchers were sorted according to the number of pitched innings. There quite much information about every listed pitcher, but first of all you should be interested in the first five columns, which shows the pitcher’ rank in general league, his name, his team, whether he is a right-handed player or a left-handed player, and his NPERA:

Rank
Name
Team
R/L
NPERA

#1
Mike Mussina
NYY
R
1.99

As the listed pitchers are sorted according to the number of pitched innings, be sure that you haven’t missed the injured pitchers, or the pitchers who has been shifted from relievers to starters, or those who haven’t pitched enough innings. As he might be placed on the top of the list, among the best pitchers of the league, until he is played enough innings and “rolled down”. You should pay attention to it especially at the beginning of a season.

After the elimination by means of these three criteria, from 15 daily games we need to leave only from 3 to 9 underdogs, to bet on them. Using our pattern, you bet 20$ on moneyline of each game.

Remember, that you are a bettor, and you should have an access to more than one bookmaker, the “real” bookmakers or/and “online” bookmakers, and it is very important.

The coefficient can be varied by some bookmakers, and you need to bet only having the best chances. For instance, if you bet on 5 games for a day, you can divide them into two web sites and three local “real” bookmakers, depending on whose offers are better.

When I lavished praise (in the previous article) upon the advantages of the baseball stakes and hockey stakes, I deliberately forgot to mention about the great value of betting on the underdogs moneylines. I have waited till now, knowing that this chapter deals only with this theme.

I had never understood the power of underdogs until I met Andrew in Las Vegas. He is a professional player, but he “works” only six months per year, during the baseball season. Andrew live – and live well – on the money, which he earns during the season. He receives the profit, at the average, in amount of 20 000$ per month.

Quite well, he doesn’t even work, as it is pretty difficult for him, he just earns his money during a baseball season. All these things take him about 15 minutes in the mornings, in order to choose his bets during the day, before he goes to play golf or spend some time at home with his wife and children till the noon.

As soon as I saw this way of money making, and recognized how easy he did it, I told Andrew that I had to acquaint myself with his method. At first he refused, like a granny who doesn’t want to tell anybody the recipe of her pie. But as the most people who have a great secret, he finally revealed it.

He appeared to bet only on baseball and only on underdogs.

And as I said, to decide what team this day to stake on, he needs less time than to walk from the first hole to the second one on a golf field. Much less time, in fact, as Andrew is not a good golf player .

Now I am going to tell you his secret, which I have modified a little to maximize the gain. I call it, “The Baseball Underdog System”.

Historically about 27% of all the games in Major League Baseball were finished with a difference in one run. This number may surprise many people who stake on the baseball matches. Remember, if you bet on a favorite with the odds -1.5 runs, you will considerably decrease the possibility of winning this bet, in comparison with a “clear victory”, almost on 30%.

That is why the decreasing of the money, which you have to bet on the runline favorite, in many cases cannot justify the risk, taking into account that almost 3 of 10 games will finish with a difference in 1 run. As for us, we won’t recommend you to stake on the runlines at all, because the additional risk exceeds the possible profit.

Even the baseball experts affirm that to bet on the runlines is not very good investment. Whether you believe it or not, but this statement is based on a big research, which was made on the games, finished with a difference in one run.

According to the general opinion of specialists, which have researched the regularities of “One-Run Games”, the final results of these games are really based more on the luck, than on any other factor. If you consider this statement to be amazing and you have played runline, then maybe you will want to stop and revalue you plan of betting. Occasion is one more reason, which shows that runline can’t be considered as a hopeful bet for long time.

But why to stake on the baseball matches is always considered to be a good idea.

The baseball seasons are the best time of year to find the best opportunity for betting. Thus there are about 2430 games in every baseball season, 1189 games in a NBA season and only 256 games in a NFL season.

Regardless of the stakes on the college kinds of sport, baseball season offers the best time of year for choosing the best games and best coefficients.

As there are twice as many games in a season as in NBA and NFL taken one with another, you can choose your stakes very “fastidiously”. But the most sport bettors do not admit this fact, and make a great mistake by ignoring the baseball seasons and voluntarily refusing from the possibility to get some profit. Do not repeat the same mistake. Use this advantage fully and always consider baseball to be a part of your investments when you bet on a sport event.