bets on total of baseball matches #1
matches totals in baseball betting #2

The first factor was described earlier - how to win in baseball betting #3

The readiness of bullpen: the most bettors do not evaluate this factor when they make a stake, but I always consider it. Here is an example. In 2003, Astros had Octavio Dotela and Billy Wagnera – very good closers. When they were good rested, I always consider Houston to be a favorite. But if they have made much work (many pitches) for two last games, I will not stake on Houston, knowing that Astros can pass some runs in the further innings.

ERA statistics: previously in the article “The Baseball Underdog System”, I fully explained an easy way of excluding of doubtful outsiders. The essence of this method is that if they play against the pitcher, who is in the Top 20 by NPERA (or “normalized predicted earned-run average”). Whether you believe it or not, but you can also find some “opposite” games per week, in which the pitcher of a lost team is in the Top 20.

2. Series: having such a long season, Baseball often becomes the game of series.

So to be sure, check the statistical column “L-10” in the team ratings, which is referred to the 10 last games of the team. Remember that the key criterion of “The Baseball Underdog System” is the series, that contains neither more than three underdog losses, nor more than three victories of the favorites. Additionally try to find a favorite, whose percent of wins is .600 or higher. Such teams have a short series of losses.

Forecast Result in Baseball and Football Betting: Defense

But when the same handicappers were asked, “Is it truth that the defense of a team is very important when you forecast baseball results?” The most beginners said, “No”; and at the same time about a half of the professionals answered, “Yes.”
This survey, admittedly, was elementary, but it was made to confirm a problem, the existence of which has been suspected for many years.

The essence of this issue is that the most baseball handicappers pay their attention on the pitchers and batters, and almost ignore the defensive ability of a team. It may sound ironically, but the most handicappers agreed that the defense of a team influences on the match result, and besides this fact they still exclude the defense when they forecast the results of baseball matches.

We consider such a strange, dynamic ignoring of this aspect to be the result of the restricted estimation procedure. It means that it is more difficult to estimate the defense of a baseball team, than other main sport competitions (NBA and NFL).

Particularly, the amount of components in the baseball defense complicates this estimation.
The great number of factors includes: different field width of different stadium, different surface of the fields, understanding of the game situation, position, decision making and many other things.

But how does a handicapper evaluate the subtle factors such as: decision making and understanding? It is supposed not so easy to be done. This fact explains why the most handicappers generally ignore the defense.

Betting Factors That Help To Win

There are no problems with hitting and pitching when you evaluate both players and teams in whole. There are some factors, which allow to evaluate pitchers quite correctly: ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts SO, Bases on Balls /Walks/ – BB, Home Runs HR, etc. Such phenomena as: On-Base Percentage (OBP), Slugging Percentage (SLG), OPS (On-Base + Slugging), batting average (ВА или AVG), runs batted in (RBI) and others are very convenient for batters’ evaluating.

Though none of them is perfect, just some of the methods are better than others. But generally speaking all these statistical indices are more than just adequate comparison and opposition of the pitchers and the batters. And at last it is the very thing, which we as handicappers are looking for.