Different kinds of bits have existed from times immemorial, and people who bet have always been and will be forever. The bettors might be different. Some of them are proved to be objects of arguing and try to prove something, challenging the people around.
Others try to prove their knowledge, their rightness, or to include some emulative spirit into the evaluation of some events. They try to add elements of holiday and show to the ordinary everyday life or to participate in some occasions. Though the objects and reasons for arguing may be absolutely different.

Argues produced both good deals and crimes. Gambling instinct, which is awoken by sports, is neither a good nor a bad thing, everything depends on its direction. It is also important to understand the motives of a squabble, and how the argues and passion for gambling influence on his life.

Real Examples: How To Bet During The Matches

Here are some examples. The odds of above the total was 2.5 and has increased at the average on 0.5 points, the odds of above the total only in the first half was 0.5 and then has increased by 0.3 at the average. Somebody considers it to be a little amount, but if you bet 1000 rubles on the total of the first half, and your team wins, the difference will be about 300 rubles.

One more example, if you think that the favorite of this match will win, but the coefficients are so low on it that you are not sure whether to stake, then wait a little, the coefficient on victories also changes. If you want to bet on a team, which odds is (-1.5), then in 15 minutes of playing, if there won’t be any goals, you will be able to make a bet almost with the same coefficients but the odds will be (-1).

Some bookmaker’ offices propose a bulk of live bets, for instance, Bwin proposes such bets as “What team will score the next goal.” Such a bet might be very useful when the favorite has conceded a goal and now tries winning the goal back.

Our team met once even such a situation

There played a not very interesting game in the minor league of Russian championship. We watch the match on BO Marathon and BO Bwin (both of these bookmakers’ offices accepted the live bets on this match). On the 80th minute BO Marathon shows that there was conceded a goal, but BO Bwin did not give such data (the match score was the same).

We were waiting for 2 minutes to be sure that the worker of BO Marathon didn’t make a mistake, and didn’t show the incorrect information. Then we made a bet in BO Bwin on “What team will score the next goal”, the coefficient was 6.3, we were amazed, but the bet was accepted.

And in 5 minutes Bwin showed that a goal was scored. Yes, it happens that the employees of bookmakers’ offices work badly. Sometimes it helps us to improve our wealth. The bet was accepted, and nobody tried to cancel it.

The first post is available here – How To Move From Offline To Online Sports Betting

By all means write down your bets. It’s enough to write the date, the amount of your stake and amount of your wins, and strike an intermediate balance once per month or couple of weeks. We always lose more than we think, as the winnings are kept in our minds for a long time, but losses, especially little ones (which though form the bulk of our bets), we consider to be a little hardship, “bad luck”, and forget some of them.

And then we amaze, why has the money, which were put aside for betting in the bank, been finished? And it’s worse when you don’t have a bank, but spend your “free” money from your own budget. In such a case you might be waiting for the following wages, having no money. So it is very important to count your bets and money. And if you use several tactics at the same time, it’s better to keep record of each of them separately.

Real Goals When Bet Online

Form the real aims: if you are ready to deposit your money in a bank only for 10 annual percent, why do you try to get a great profit, and depose a little money? Of course many people like realizing that they can bet just 100 $ and win 100 000$. But in fact you should understand that you do not have more chances for this than for winning the same prize in a lottery. And if you are able to increase your capital, but not to decrease it, it will be good. The most of bettors who try to enrich fast, can’t boast about it.

Bet only on the outcomes, you are good at.

Your friends’ advices, the advices of the frequent customers’ of the bookmaker offices, bets, which are based only on the “bare” statistics of the teams, or on the rumors, which guarantee you the correct result of this or that match, must not be followed.
“Tipsters” on some internet web sites are something different. And some of their forecasts may be believed, especially when the history of these forecasts has proved them to be reliable. But even though you shouldn’t bet on the unknown outcomes.

Some Practice Tips For Those Who Need To Improve Their Betting Results

It is obligatory to define the amount of money, which you are ready to assign for betting, for example, weekly or monthly put it aside and use it only for you stakes. Never stake money, which is assigned for another very important purpose, especially not your money or ticked money. Having defined the amount, think prettily whether you ready to lose this amount of money. If you are not sure, just put the game aside till the better time.

Than visit all the bookmakers’ offices in your city, and take the rules (they have to give them to you). Every bookmaker’s office might have some nuances, which may affect the fortune of your bets. (For instance, you stake on the draw of a hokey match, being sure that the outcome of your stake will be acknowledged when the regular time is up, but in fact, it will appear that this bookmaker, accepting the stakes, counts the overtime as well.)

You should ask the staff of the office if you can’t understand some incomprehensible things in the rules. Also visit every bookmaker office when there are many outcomes for a day, and take their lines – the list of outcomes, bets on the odds of which are accepted by the bookmaker.

Compare the lines for the same days of these offices, and define what office offers you more opportunities for betting, more outcomes, higher odds and so on.

According to these and other data chose one or two offices where you are going to bet.

Online Vs Offline Sports Betting

In principle, you can only play “online’, but it’s sometimes better to begin with “offline”. First of all there are no problems with payments and payouts, secondly if it doesn’t go well, you don’t need to return the remains of the deposit (which might be lower than the minimal required amount of money), and thirdly the money that you are handing is psychologically more difficult to waste than that, which you have putted in your internet account (i.e. you have already lost them), and which is now just some physically printed on the keyboard numbers.

After this, I would recommend you for some time (a week or two) to bet “fictitiously”, i.e. having analyzed the line and chosen the outcomes, write down your variants and amounts of your bets on a sheet of paper, but do not make the real bets. So you will be able to evaluate yourself, and understand where you have overrated your forecaster’s possibilities.

A week is too little time, of course, for it, but most of us consider themselves to be the experts of this or that sport. But as soon as you try to deal (i.e. to bet), it appears that your business are progressing not very good (sometimes even very bad), and it is of course quite unexpected for you.

Generally every time when you try a new strategy, it is better for you to bet on “a sheet of paper” for some weeks, and do not use the real money. Try different variants, which are provided by the rules: ordinaries, systems, expresses, and understand the idea of these variants as well (as the practice shows, most of the bettors, especially beginners, cannot understand essence of the systems).

The beginning of the practice:
Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5
Baseball Betting: Strategical Insight #6
Baseball Betting: Tactical Insight #7
Baseball Betting: System Approach #8
How To Bet On Baseball Strategically? #9
System Tips In Baseball Betting #10

DAY 7, Sunday, May 18, 2003

Chicago Cubs (+120, Estes) at St. Louis (-130, Simontacchi)
Result: St. Louis 6, Chicago 3, for a $20 loss.
Montreal (+120, Ohka) at Colorado (-130, Chacon).
Again, Colorado’s pitcher was ranked No. 25, so this is an iffy play, but I’ll include it.
Result: Colorado 4, Montreal 0, for a $20 loss.
New York Mets (+130, Glavine) at San Francisco (-140, Ainsworth)
Result: New York 5, San Francisco 1 for a $26 profit.
Pittsburgh (Suppan) at Arizona (Webb)
Result: Arizona 8, Pittsburgh 6, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.
Anaheim (+125, Lackey) at Boston (-135, Burkett)
Result: Boston 5, Angels 3, for a $20 loss.
Tampa Bay (+130, Kennedy) at Baltimore (-140, Daal)
Result: Tampa Bay 9, Baltimore 8, for a $26 profit.
Chicago White Sox (Loaiza) at Minnesota (Lohse)
Result: Minnesota 3, Chicago 2, for a $20 profit on a total of 8.

Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit

7
2-3
-$8
1-1
-$2
-$10
$181
I want you to pay attention to the said above, I would be beyond the choosing Montreal with high rated Chacon on the top, which would give us a day full of wins, and only 2 losing days from 7 in this system. This example shows that you need to look for games with pitchers, which are on the edge of the Top 25, and make sure that there are other reasons to bet on underdogs besides the good coefficients.
So, what have you done for this week?
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Total Profit

1-7
18-15
$147
5-3
$34
$191
Three key criteria, to choose the games in the Baseball Underdog System, have helped you to choose 18 winners from 33 games (or .545 percent of winning).
Plus there are some criteria to bet unders with 2 pitchers in Top 20 ERA or NPERA, it has given .625 percent of winning.

Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5
Baseball Betting: Strategical Insight #6
Baseball Betting: Tactical Insight #7
Baseball Betting: System Approach #8

DAY 5, Friday, May 16, 2003

Atlanta (-160, Hampton) at San Diego (+140, Peavy)
Result: Atlanta 6, San Diego 4, for a $20 loss.
Pittsburgh (Wells) at Arizona (Batista)
Result: Pirates 8, Arizona 5, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.
Chicago Cubs (Clement) at St. Louis (Williams)

Result: St. Louis 7, Chicago 4, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.
Philadelphia (-115, Padilla) at Houston (+105, Robertson)
Result: Houston 4, Philadelphia 2, for a $21 profit.
Chicago White Sox (+110, Buehrle) at Minnesota (-120, Radke)
Result: Minnesota 18, Chicago 3, for a $20 loss.
Toronto (+105, Hendrickson) at Kansas City (-115, George)
Result: Toronto 18, Kansas City 1, for a $21 profit.
Oakland (Mulder) at Cleveland (Sabathia)
Result: Cleveland 2, Oakland 1, for a $20 profit on a total of 7.5.
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit

5
2-2
$2
1-2
-$24
-$22
$137
This is the worst day of the week. But this is also the only day during which the “unders” were lost. This is the very thing, why I always like betting on The Baseball Underdog System, as the great pinchers almost every time overcome the good hits, especially in the two third of a season, before the hands of the starting pitchers are got tired.

In this post I will continue to talk about baseball betting strategy. We will discuss aim, series, formula, rules, ‘under total with two great pitchers’, evidence. Hope these points will help to understand better successful betting in baseball.

Aim

The simple aim, the essence of which is to bet only on the baseball underdogs, who haven’t lost three games in a series and play versus a favorite team, which haven’t win 3 or more times in succession and has their standard start pitchers.

Series

Unlike the bulk of my programs, this series contains no system. Instead of this your bets will be based on the percentage of your Personal Bank of Bets, formula of which is below.

Formula

A simple formula to define the amount of your stake in The Baseball Underdog System.

.0125 x of your Bank = the amount of your stake.

It means that you bet 1.25% of your Bank on every game. So if your bank had constituted 1 600$, you would have betted 20$ on each game. Playing at the average about 5 games per day means you bet 100$ per day.

It will protect your Personal Bank of Bets. In fact, you would have had 0 wins and 80 losses, or you would have played about 16 days without wins to lose your Bank.

You are possible to think that the amount of these initial bets is very low. Well, you may increase them to 2.5% from your Bank. It means that you would have had 0 wins and 40 losses, or you would have played about 8 days without wins, to lose your Bank.

Rules

1. Every day check American and National league and automatically cross out from your list of bets any underdogs, which have more than +150 odds on moneyline or about it.

2. From the remained games cross out the games, in which the underdogs have lost three or more times in succession, or the favorites have won three or more times in succession. (You can find this information in MLB of the daily newspapers.)

3. From the rest of the games cross out all the games where pitchers are in the Top 20 from AL or NL to ERA, or NPERA, as it was defined by Jeff Sagarin (R) (see above).

4. You have to stake only on 3-9 games (from 15) per day. Bet 20$ (as in our discussed example) on each underdogs’ game, do it in every your favorable bookmaker office to find the best moneylines.

5. Before betting the next day, count the amount of your Personal Bank of Bets and increase your bets to amount each your stake to 1.25% of your Bank.

The Baseball Underdog system is based on the law of average numbers, showing that during a long period of time MLB Underdog teams win favorites in 4 games from 9 (or 44%). But even if you bet an underdog on the moneyline, you will earn more, as the odds is +130, you bet 10$ to win 13$, it is much better than 5 wins and 4 losses of the favorites every day.

For example, let’s suppose that you stake 10$ on the every underdog today, which coefficient is +130 on the moneyline. If you win 4 games, you gain 13$ for every correctly guessed match, or 52$ in sum. But you lose 50$ because of 5favorites’ wins.

But instead of betting all the underdogs every day, you have to choose games by following these three simple criteria:

First of all: remove the games, in which the underdog has lost three or more times in succession, and/or the favorite has won three or more times in succession.

It will prevent you from betting on “bad”, “tricky” underdogs, which meet the excited teams, whose bettors can “thrash” the pitchers of this team.

Secondly: remove the games, moneyline on underdogs of which is higher than +150, or something about it.

If the odds are +150, it is almost doubtless that underdog has broken its set. So cross out such games and go on.

Thirdly: remove the games, in which underdog plays against one of the pitchers, who is, according to the earned-run average (ERA), in Top20 of the league.

Nowadays there are many newspapers on internet web sites, which can provide you with ERA statistics, but I insistently recommend you to use the “standardized” ERA ratings, which are calculated by Jeff Sagarin (R), and situated on the web site USA Today’s.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm

In this rating Sagarin uses some complicated data, to provide every pitcher in the league with a number that shows his “real” ERA. He identifies ERA for every pitcher in comparison with the actions of other pitchers from 1946 to 1999, and according to these comparisons he calculates NPERA (or “normalized predicted earned-run average”).

In fact, it often appears to be not the truth, as bookmakers set the odds, which is based on the social perception, with only one aim “to divide the bettors into two parts”, i.e. force 50% of bettors to stake on the opposite team (the said above is applied to the American stakes on baseball and football with the equal chances), so the bookmakers will receive some profit regardless of the winner (whether the favorites win or underdogs).

Real Example of Baseball Betting Strategy

The main example is Super Bowl in 2003, during which the bookmakers of the whole country adjusted the odds, which were oriented on the offensive playing of Oakland Raiders with -4.5 points against the defensive Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. The competent football fans saw a great value in this offer, knowing that the defense in most cases wins the big competitions. But the most fans like the attackers, not the defenders, and the fans of betting like favorites.

In the end there were too many bettors who staked on Raiders.

Some bookmakers announced about the bets on Auckland -4.5 against the stakes on Tampa +4.5 with superiority of 9-1. In the end Tampa Bay blew the Raiders, and most bookmakers like bandits, as there were too many bettors who staked on underdogs.
Tampa (odds +4.5), in fact, settle the matter before the half-period, leading with 17 points, at the first time since 1988, when Washington won the Denver team in the final with a score 42-10, a team in Super Bowl could save itself with the deficit of 10 points.

Of course the sport fans and bettors can be forgiven if they have an inveterate wrong view on the fact, how bookmakers adjust the odds.

Remember that mass media, especially television and radio journalists, should be happy about the problem of gambling, as it is illegal in the 99% of the USA. In fact, when the journalists mention about the coefficients (chances) of teams in general, it might look like this: “Vikings is the favorite team in the match versus Packers.”

But this is a great hypocrisy, as the coefficients (chances) of teams, especially football and baseball teams, can be found almost in every newspaper of the country, even thousands miles away from the nearest legal casino or bookmakers’ office.

About baseball betting on totals:
bets on total of baseball matches #1
matches totals in baseball betting #2

The first and the second key factors are described here:
how to win in baseball betting #3
4 factors for your baseball betting strategy #4

3. Weather: This factor separates the professionals from the amateurs.

If you do not check the weather before to bet, you lose one of the main “elements” of the game. The wind, which blows towards the outfield, may change the pitcher’s fly-ball into his home-run, and can greatly influence on the result, when you bet on the totals.

4. Other baseball betting factors.

When choosing your bets look for any factors, which can influence the game even a bit.

Journeys/flights: In your analysis do not forget about the teams, which played an evening/night game in the previous day, and have to fly for the next game in the evening or in the early morning. An example of the season in 2003: Baltimore played a night game in California, meanwhile Texas, the next Orioles’ opponent, received some time for rest. Baltimore was on a plane, when the team arrived to Texas at 5:30. Later on the same day, the well-rested Texas’ team easily won the tired Orioles’ team.

The long away games: I always pay attention to the stakes on teams, which has just returned from long away series of matches, and play its first home game. In such situations the team needs some time for acclimatization after the tiring travel.

Emotions: look for the teams, which open the game series versus their opponents.

Soon how to bet strategically…