Real Examples: How To Bet During The Matches

Here are some examples. The odds of above the total was 2.5 and has increased at the average on 0.5 points, the odds of above the total only in the first half was 0.5 and then has increased by 0.3 at the average. Somebody considers it to be a little amount, but if you bet 1000 rubles on the total of the first half, and your team wins, the difference will be about 300 rubles.

One more example, if you think that the favorite of this match will win, but the coefficients are so low on it that you are not sure whether to stake, then wait a little, the coefficient on victories also changes. If you want to bet on a team, which odds is (-1.5), then in 15 minutes of playing, if there won’t be any goals, you will be able to make a bet almost with the same coefficients but the odds will be (-1).

Some bookmaker’ offices propose a bulk of live bets, for instance, Bwin proposes such bets as “What team will score the next goal.” Such a bet might be very useful when the favorite has conceded a goal and now tries winning the goal back.

Our team met once even such a situation

There played a not very interesting game in the minor league of Russian championship. We watch the match on BO Marathon and BO Bwin (both of these bookmakers’ offices accepted the live bets on this match). On the 80th minute BO Marathon shows that there was conceded a goal, but BO Bwin did not give such data (the match score was the same).

We were waiting for 2 minutes to be sure that the worker of BO Marathon didn’t make a mistake, and didn’t show the incorrect information. Then we made a bet in BO Bwin on “What team will score the next goal”, the coefficient was 6.3, we were amazed, but the bet was accepted.

And in 5 minutes Bwin showed that a goal was scored. Yes, it happens that the employees of bookmakers’ offices work badly. Sometimes it helps us to improve our wealth. The bet was accepted, and nobody tried to cancel it.

The first post is available here – How To Move From Offline To Online Sports Betting

By all means write down your bets. It’s enough to write the date, the amount of your stake and amount of your wins, and strike an intermediate balance once per month or couple of weeks. We always lose more than we think, as the winnings are kept in our minds for a long time, but losses, especially little ones (which though form the bulk of our bets), we consider to be a little hardship, “bad luck”, and forget some of them.

And then we amaze, why has the money, which were put aside for betting in the bank, been finished? And it’s worse when you don’t have a bank, but spend your “free” money from your own budget. In such a case you might be waiting for the following wages, having no money. So it is very important to count your bets and money. And if you use several tactics at the same time, it’s better to keep record of each of them separately.

Real Goals When Bet Online

Form the real aims: if you are ready to deposit your money in a bank only for 10 annual percent, why do you try to get a great profit, and depose a little money? Of course many people like realizing that they can bet just 100 $ and win 100 000$. But in fact you should understand that you do not have more chances for this than for winning the same prize in a lottery. And if you are able to increase your capital, but not to decrease it, it will be good. The most of bettors who try to enrich fast, can’t boast about it.

Bet only on the outcomes, you are good at.

Your friends’ advices, the advices of the frequent customers’ of the bookmaker offices, bets, which are based only on the “bare” statistics of the teams, or on the rumors, which guarantee you the correct result of this or that match, must not be followed.
“Tipsters” on some internet web sites are something different. And some of their forecasts may be believed, especially when the history of these forecasts has proved them to be reliable. But even though you shouldn’t bet on the unknown outcomes.

Bet is an argue between two men about the result of an event

Each of them stakes some money (the stake), which he is ready to give his opponent if he wins. So the winner of betting, takes both his stake and his opponent’s stake. Those who has lost receives nothing. So the argue (in such cases it is called a bet) to be done, there need two sides (people), which have the opposite to each other opinion about the further match (or event).

A bookmaker, in some ways, is an intermediary between the people who bet. But his function is wider: he doesn’t only take the stakes from the bettors, but he also fix the amount of prize for each bet (coefficients), so he participates in betting himself, because the bookmaker’s profit depends on the correctness of setting the coefficients. Totalizators only accept the bets from players and pay them their prizes, dividing the whole amount of the betted money (except some money which they take for the work) into the amount of winning bets, proportionally to each bet.

So the totalizators’ profit depends only on the amount of bet and nothing more. There is another situation with the bookmakers, who have to pay the prize, which is amounted to the bet multiplied by its coefficient. So the bookmakers try adjusting the coefficients to receive the profit in any cases, and that is why almost every time as far as people bet, bookmakers change the coefficients, depending on the distribution of amount of money.

So the coefficients do not show the probability of results of the corresponded matches, but only the proportions of the bettors’ bets (really or according to the bookmaker’s calculation) on the results.
It was the description of the process in short. And before participating in it as a bettor, you should be prepared. Even if you have already betted, but you do not have any good progress, you would better to stop and start from the beginning, according to the recommendations given in the next post.

Betting Tips For Regular NFL Season

The beginning of the practice:
Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5
Baseball Betting: Strategical Insight #6
Baseball Betting: Tactical Insight #7
Baseball Betting: System Approach #8
How To Bet On Baseball Strategically? #9
System Tips In Baseball Betting #10

DAY 7, Sunday, May 18, 2003

Chicago Cubs (+120, Estes) at St. Louis (-130, Simontacchi)
Result: St. Louis 6, Chicago 3, for a $20 loss.
Montreal (+120, Ohka) at Colorado (-130, Chacon).
Again, Colorado’s pitcher was ranked No. 25, so this is an iffy play, but I’ll include it.
Result: Colorado 4, Montreal 0, for a $20 loss.
New York Mets (+130, Glavine) at San Francisco (-140, Ainsworth)
Result: New York 5, San Francisco 1 for a $26 profit.
Pittsburgh (Suppan) at Arizona (Webb)
Result: Arizona 8, Pittsburgh 6, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.
Anaheim (+125, Lackey) at Boston (-135, Burkett)
Result: Boston 5, Angels 3, for a $20 loss.
Tampa Bay (+130, Kennedy) at Baltimore (-140, Daal)
Result: Tampa Bay 9, Baltimore 8, for a $26 profit.
Chicago White Sox (Loaiza) at Minnesota (Lohse)
Result: Minnesota 3, Chicago 2, for a $20 profit on a total of 8.

Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit

7
2-3
-$8
1-1
-$2
-$10
$181
I want you to pay attention to the said above, I would be beyond the choosing Montreal with high rated Chacon on the top, which would give us a day full of wins, and only 2 losing days from 7 in this system. This example shows that you need to look for games with pitchers, which are on the edge of the Top 25, and make sure that there are other reasons to bet on underdogs besides the good coefficients.
So, what have you done for this week?
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Total Profit

1-7
18-15
$147
5-3
$34
$191
Three key criteria, to choose the games in the Baseball Underdog System, have helped you to choose 18 winners from 33 games (or .545 percent of winning).
Plus there are some criteria to bet unders with 2 pitchers in Top 20 ERA or NPERA, it has given .625 percent of winning.

Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5
Baseball Betting: Strategical Insight #6
Baseball Betting: Tactical Insight #7
Baseball Betting: System Approach #8
How To Bet On Baseball Strategically? #9

DAY 6, Saturday, May 17, 2003

Cincinnati (-130, Austin) at Milwaukee (+120, Rusch)
Result: Milwaukee 8, Cincinnati 6, for a $24 profit.
Philadelphia (+115, Duckworth) at Houston (-125, Linebank)
Result: Philadelphia 9, Houston 4, for a $23 profit.
Pittsburgh (+125, Torres) at Arizona (-130, Capuano)
Pittsburgh 8, Arizona 5, for a $25 profit.
Tampa Bay (+140, Gonzalez) at Baltimore (-150, Hentgen)
Result: Baltimore 2, Tampa Bay 0, for a $20 loss.
Oakland (-160, Halama) at Cleveland (+150, Rodriguez)
Occasionally, such as in this game, the underdog pitcher is ranked fairly high, in this case No. 28 in the AL. These games are usually particular bargains.
Result: Cleveland 4, Oakland 2, for a $30 profit.
Toronto (-120, Halladay) at Kansas City (+110, Affeldt)
Result: Toronto 4, Kansas City 2, for a $20 loss.
Anaheim (+110, Washburn) at Boston (-120, Lowe)
This is yet another example of when an underdog pitcher is ranked, this time No. 14!
Result: Anaheim 6, Boston 2, for a $22 profit.
Chicago White Sox (+130, Garland) at Minnesota (-140, Mays)
Because the favored pitcher is ranked No. 23, I’d pass on this pick but will include it for our example’s purposes.
Result: Minnesota 3, Chicago 1, for a $20 loss.
Texas (+215, Valdes) at New York Yankees (-235, Pettitte)
As I told in my last chapter, “the bookmakers overrate Yankee.” During this period of the season 2003, for instance, Yankee played baseball unusually bad. And Pettitte was at the worst point of his career, so it wasn’t a bad underdog’ game. But I am not going to include it in your gain. I show it here only for you to understand, that you should look over the numbers as logic sometimes can reject the “rules”.
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit

6
5-3
$54
0-0
$0
$54
$191
This is not the day when you just choose underdogs, as I except the loss with Chicago, and include the win with Texas, which didn’t really fit our criteria. As the system is comfortable for you, you will obviously understand those things, when you move a little aside the rules.

Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5
Baseball Betting: Strategical Insight #6
Baseball Betting: Tactical Insight #7
Baseball Betting: System Approach #8

DAY 5, Friday, May 16, 2003

Atlanta (-160, Hampton) at San Diego (+140, Peavy)
Result: Atlanta 6, San Diego 4, for a $20 loss.
Pittsburgh (Wells) at Arizona (Batista)
Result: Pirates 8, Arizona 5, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.
Chicago Cubs (Clement) at St. Louis (Williams)

Result: St. Louis 7, Chicago 4, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.
Philadelphia (-115, Padilla) at Houston (+105, Robertson)
Result: Houston 4, Philadelphia 2, for a $21 profit.
Chicago White Sox (+110, Buehrle) at Minnesota (-120, Radke)
Result: Minnesota 18, Chicago 3, for a $20 loss.
Toronto (+105, Hendrickson) at Kansas City (-115, George)
Result: Toronto 18, Kansas City 1, for a $21 profit.
Oakland (Mulder) at Cleveland (Sabathia)
Result: Cleveland 2, Oakland 1, for a $20 profit on a total of 7.5.
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit

5
2-2
$2
1-2
-$24
-$22
$137
This is the worst day of the week. But this is also the only day during which the “unders” were lost. This is the very thing, why I always like betting on The Baseball Underdog System, as the great pinchers almost every time overcome the good hits, especially in the two third of a season, before the hands of the starting pitchers are got tired.

Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5
Baseball Betting: Strategical Insight #6
Baseball Betting: Tactical Insight #7

DAY 3, Wednesday, May 14, 2003

New York Mets (+100, Seo) at Colorado (-120, Oliver)
Result: Colorado 6, New York 5, for a $20 loss.
Montreal (+140, Vargas) at San Francisco (-150, Foppert)
Result: Montreal 6, San Francisco 3, for a $28 profit.
Arizona (Schilling) at Philadelphia (Myers)
Result: Arizona 2, Philadelphia 0, for a $20 profit on the under total of 7.5 since Myers was a Top 20 pitcher and Schilling was also highly ranked in a fewer-innings category after returning from an injury.
Kansas City (+130, Hernandez) at Minnesota (-145, Reed)
Result: Minnesota 7, Kansas City 0, for a $20 loss.
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit
3
1-2
-$12
1-0
$20
$8
$149

DAY 4, Thursday, May 15, 2003

Houston (-150, Oswalt) at Pittsburgh (+140, Benson)
Result: Houston 6, Pittsburgh 2, for a $20 loss.
Kansas City (+150, Asencio) at Minnesota (-160, Rogers)
Result: Kansas City 9, Minnesota 5, for a $30 profit.
Day
Underdog Record
Profit
“Unders” Record
Profit
Today’s Profit
Total Profit

4
1-1
$10
0-0
$0
$10
$159

Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5

Under The Total in Games With Two Great Pitchers

During betting on The Baseball Underdog System, I always include the second set of stakes on the games, in which both of the pitchers are in the Top20 of the league, on unders the estimated by bookmaker total. As you might suppose, “the pitchers’ duels” usually finish unders the total, estimated by bookmaker; it is usually between 7.5 and 9 runs.
To show you how it works, the information below includes an example from real life, which shows a week from MLB season, using The Baseball Underdog System.

Evidence

Instead of giving you a hypothetical example that shows how to win using The Baseball Underdog System, I give you a real example of betting during a week on the MLB games from Monday, May 12, 2003 to Saturday, May 18, 2003.

Notice that this week was chosen by my employee, Nelson Williams, and I include this example at the end of the article not because it proves this system to be better or something. Any other week might be on this place. To make the calculation easier, the bets on underdogs of moneyline amount to 20$ and all the unders – 22$ (to win 20$).

You will see that during the first day, on Monday, I have included all the selected games with the explanations of their betting and removing. It will help you to understand what games really fit the system. After the first day I included the games, without explanations, and their results. Next to every team you can find its moneyline odds and initial pitchers.

DAY 1, Monday, May 12, 2003

Houston (-115, Lindenbrook) at Pittsburgh (+105, Torres)
The underdog Pittsburgh had lost 3 in a row coming into this game, so there is no play.

Result: Houston 9, Pittsburgh 4.

Chicago Cubs (-240, Prior) at Milwaukee (+200, Rusch)

Prior is in the Top 20 and the moneyline odds on Milwaukee are too high, so there is no play.

Result: Chicago 11, Milwaukee 5.

New York Mets (+105, Trachsel) at Colorado (-115, Young)

Since neither team is on a streak, neither pitcher is in the Top 20, and the moneyline odds are +150 or below, there is a $20 play on New York +105.

Result: New York 9, Colorado 6, for a $21 profit.

Florida (+115, Phelps) at San Diego (-125, Condrey)

Again, neither team is on a streak, neither pitcher is in the Top 20, and the moneyline odds aren’t too high, so the $20 play is Florida +115.

Result: Florida 6, San Diego 1, for a $23 profit.

Atlanta (+120, Reynolds) at Los Angeles (-130, Nomo)

Once again, none of the excluding criteria has been met, so the $20 play is on Atlanta +120.

Result: Atlanta 11, Los Angeles 4, for a $24 profit.

Montreal (+130, Day) at San Francisco (-140, Moss)

Both pitchers are in the Top 20, which means it is not a traditional play. But I’d play it as a $22 “under” wager on the day’s total of 7.5.

Result: Montreal 4, San Francisco 3, for a $20 profit

Kansas City (+135, Affeldt) at Minnesota (-145, May)

As neither pitcher is in the Top 20 or on a streak, and the odds are favorable, the play is on Kansas City + 135.

Result: Kansas City 3, Minnesota 2, for a $27 profit.

Day

Underdog Record

Profit

“Unders” Record

Profit

Today’s Profit

Total Profit

1

4-0

$95

1-0

$20

$115

$115

This day proved the system the best way it could, as there were 4-0 for underdogs and 1-0 for unders. Not all the days look like this one and you will see it.

Take notice that in Pittsburgh and Milwaukee games we are beyond the potential losses, because we are keeping to our criteria. The pirates team were in the losing series, and Milwaukee had a very risky underdog.

In this post I will continue to talk about baseball betting strategy. We will discuss aim, series, formula, rules, ‘under total with two great pitchers’, evidence. Hope these points will help to understand better successful betting in baseball.

Aim

The simple aim, the essence of which is to bet only on the baseball underdogs, who haven’t lost three games in a series and play versus a favorite team, which haven’t win 3 or more times in succession and has their standard start pitchers.

Series

Unlike the bulk of my programs, this series contains no system. Instead of this your bets will be based on the percentage of your Personal Bank of Bets, formula of which is below.

Formula

A simple formula to define the amount of your stake in The Baseball Underdog System.

.0125 x of your Bank = the amount of your stake.

It means that you bet 1.25% of your Bank on every game. So if your bank had constituted 1 600$, you would have betted 20$ on each game. Playing at the average about 5 games per day means you bet 100$ per day.

It will protect your Personal Bank of Bets. In fact, you would have had 0 wins and 80 losses, or you would have played about 16 days without wins to lose your Bank.

You are possible to think that the amount of these initial bets is very low. Well, you may increase them to 2.5% from your Bank. It means that you would have had 0 wins and 40 losses, or you would have played about 8 days without wins, to lose your Bank.

Rules

1. Every day check American and National league and automatically cross out from your list of bets any underdogs, which have more than +150 odds on moneyline or about it.

2. From the remained games cross out the games, in which the underdogs have lost three or more times in succession, or the favorites have won three or more times in succession. (You can find this information in MLB of the daily newspapers.)

3. From the rest of the games cross out all the games where pitchers are in the Top 20 from AL or NL to ERA, or NPERA, as it was defined by Jeff Sagarin (R) (see above).

4. You have to stake only on 3-9 games (from 15) per day. Bet 20$ (as in our discussed example) on each underdogs’ game, do it in every your favorable bookmaker office to find the best moneylines.

5. Before betting the next day, count the amount of your Personal Bank of Bets and increase your bets to amount each your stake to 1.25% of your Bank.